04 Jun 2020

Future Mobility – Understanding a new transport ecosystem


As part of our guest blog series on thematic investing, MSCI and Lukas Neckermann share their views on Future Mobility. Read on to find out how the future of passenger and freight transport is already transforming our daily lives.

Future mobility and technology innovation

It is easy to take getting from point A to point B for granted. Whether a destination is across town or further afield, transport is a key element of how society works. Transport represents a significant part of the economy as well — at around 13% of total outlays, transportation is second only to housing as the largest category of expenses in the average U.S. or European household.1 In addition, this is a sector that has already faced substantial disruption.

Vehicles have become more connected and more cars are now electric. Both these trends seem likely to deepen and broaden at least based on plans global carmakers have announced to invest over USD 300 billion in electric vehicle technology alone over the next five to 10 years.2Buses, cars, trains, scooters and aircraft have also become more automated. Moreover, a shift from ownership to “usership,” as part of a “shared economy,” means that the traditional business models across the transportation, travel and automotive sectors have become increasingly vulnerable. A widely quoted study from Berkeley’s Transportation Sustainability Research Center suggests that each car-sharing vehicle replaces nine to13 vehicles purchased.3

Today, many travelers are more likely to hail a ride with their smartphone than to get a rental car or taxi. According to the business travel expense management company, Certify, Uber is now the largest single recipient of travel expenses among U.S. business travelers, accounting for over 12% of travel expenses — three times more than any single restaurant, airline or retail outlet4 Particularly for residents in cities,the economics of directly owning a car seem to be changing, as alternatives such as ride-hailing and car-sharing services are becoming more transparent and available, and as low-emissions zones are introduced. A new ecosystem — broadly called “mobility,” i.e., mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) — has been emerging.

1Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.htm
2 Reuters, Jan. 10 2019 “VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars”: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-autoshow-detroitelectric-exclusive/exclusive-vw-china-spearhead-300-billion-globaldrive-to-electrify-cars-idUKKCN1P40GI
3“Impacts of car2go on Vehicle Ownership, Modal Shift, Vehicle Miles Traveled, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Analysis of Five North American Cities”: http://its.berkeley.edu/node/12871

MSCI Future mobility

MSCI would like to thank Lukas Neckermann, Managing Director of Neckermann Strategic Advisors, for useful discussions and insightful analysis of this megatrend which have greatly facilitated the preparation of this article.

Lukas Neckermann is the author of three books: “The Mobility Revolution” (2015), “Corporate Mobility Breakthrough 2020” (2017) and “Smart Cities, Smart Mobility: Transforming the Way We Live and Work” (2018).

The view from Lyxor

Our world is changing. Technological breakthroughs, economic evolution and the climate emergency are reshaping reality for billions of people. Will your portfolio keep up?

Each of our Thematic ETFs combines human insight, natural language processing and data analysis techniques in a unique way to identify the companies that matter most, and ensure your portfolio stays one step ahead. As a pioneering ETF provider with a history of innovation, we’ve gone the extra mile to build some truly state-of-the art funds for a new state of mind.

We’re incredibly excited about this range and hope you can join us in preparing portfolios for change.

MSCI Disclaimer
The information contained herein (the “Information”) may not be reproduced or disseminated in whole or in part withoutprior written permission from MSCI. The Information may not be used to verify or correct other data, to create indexes,risk models, or analytics, or in connection with issuing, offering, sponsoring, managing or marketing any securities,portfolios, financial products or other investment vehicles. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as anindication or guarantee of any future performance, analysis, forecast or prediction. None of the Information or MSCIindex or other product or service constitutes an offer to buy or sell, or a promotion or recommendation of, anysecurity, financial instrument or product or trading strategy. Further, none of the Information or any MSCI index isintended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investmentdecision and may not be relied on as such. The Information is provided “as is” and the user of the Information assumesthe entire risk of any use it may make or permit to be made of the Information. NONE OF MSCI INC. OR ANY OF ITSSUBSIDIARIES OR ITS OR THEIR DIRECT OR INDIRECT SUPPLIERS OR ANY THIRD PARTY INVOLVED IN THE MAKING OR COMPILING OF THEINFORMATION (EACH, AN “MSCI PARTY”) MAKES ANY WARRANTIES OR REPRESENTATIONS AND, TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW,EACH MSCI PARTY HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESSFOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. WITHOUT LIMITING ANY OF THE FOREGOING AND TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, IN NO EVENTSHALL ANY OF THE MSCI PARTIES HAVE ANY LIABILITY REGARDING ANY OF THE INFORMATION FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL,PUNITIVE, CONSEQUENTIAL (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS) OR ANY OTHER DAMAGES EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCHDAMAGES. The foregoing shall not exclude or limit any liability that may not by applicable law be excluded or limited.

This article is for informative purposes only, and should not be taken as investment advice. Lyxor ETF does not in anyway endorse or promote the companies mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed by Lukas Neckermann are his own,and do not necessarily reflect the views of Lyxor International Asset Management or Societe Generale. Capital at risk.Please read our Risk Warning below.

Risk Warning
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “EligibleCounterparties” or “Professional Clients” within the meaning of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2014/65/EU.These products comply with the UCITS Directive (2009/65/EC). Société Générale and Lyxor International Asset Management(LIAM) recommend that investors read carefully the “investment risks” section of the product’s documentation (prospectusand KIID). The prospectus and KIID are available free of charge on www.lyxoretf.com, and upon request toclient-services-etf@lyxor.com.

Except for the United-Kingdom, where this communication is issued in the UK by Lyxor Asset Management UK LLP, which isauthorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK under Registration Number 435658, thiscommunication is issued by Lyxor International Asset Management (LIAM), a French management company authorized by theAutorité des marchés financiers and placed under the regulations of the UCITS (2014/91/EU) and AIFM (2011/61/EU)Directives. Société Générale is a French credit institution (bank) authorised by the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel etde résolution (the French Prudential Control Authority).

The products mentioned are the object of market-making contracts, the purpose of which is to ensure the liquidity of theproducts on the London Stock Exchange, assuming normal market conditions and normally functioning computer systems.Units of a specific UCITS ETF managed by an asset manager and purchased on the secondary market cannot usually be solddirectly back to the asset manager itself. Investors must buy and sell units on a secondary market with the assistanceof an intermediary (e.g. a stockbroker) and may incur fees for doing so. In addition, investors may pay more than thecurrent net asset value when buying units and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling them.Updated composition of the product’s investment portfolio is available on www.lyxoretf.com. In addition, the indicativenet asset value is published on the Reuters and Bloomberg pages of the product, and might also be mentioned on thewebsites of the stock exchanges where the product is listed.

Prior to investing in the product, investors should seek independent financial, tax, accounting and legal advice. It iseach investor’s responsibility to ascertain that it is authorised to subscribe, or invest into this product. Thisdocument is of a commercial nature and not of a regulatory nature. This material is of a commercial nature and not aregulatory nature. This document does not constitute an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, from Société Générale,Lyxor Asset Management (together with its affiliates, Lyxor AM) or any of their respective subsidiaries to purchase orsell the product referred to herein.

Research disclaimer
Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) or its employees may have or maintain business relationships withcompanies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that LIAM and its employees may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only asingle factor in making their investment decision. Please see appendix at the end of this report for the analyst(s)certification(s), important disclosures and disclaimers. Alternatively, visit our global research disclosure websitewww.lyxoretf.com/compliance.

Conflicts of interest
This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) CrossAsset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macroviews of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Researchopinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from theviews and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/orstrategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including,but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodityindices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views andreports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to (i) ensure that purportedfacts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiereddissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the qualityand accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues frommanagement fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees.