16 Feb 2021

Looking under the hood of the future mobility value chain


For Marketing Purposes - ​FOR QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY– This document is reserved and must be given in Switzerland exclusively to Qualified Investors as defined by the Swiss Collective Investment Scheme Act of 23 June 2006 (as amended from time to time, CISA).

On 10 February, Lyxor was delighted to host a webcast on Future Mobility with theme expert Lukas Neckermann and Neeraj Kumar from MSCI. Below are a few edited highlights from the webcast, which you can watch in full here.

2020 was a breakout year for future mobility, and especially for electric cars. Shares in the US electric vehicle (EV) maker Tesla rose by 695%, catapulting it into fifth place in the S&P 500 index. Less famously but of similar magnitude, China’s electric carmaker Nio rose by 1,100%.*

However, from an investor standpoint, the future of mobility is about far more than just electric vehicles. The MSCI ACWI IMI Future Mobility Index is diversified across the mobility ecosystem and is up 66% since February 2020.*

Lukas Neckermann, MD of Neckermann Strategic Advisors and author of “The Mobility Revolution”  explains the rationale for this race towards a smarter, greener future for transport.

The new value chain

Lukas Neckermann

The future mobility theme comes with a whole new value chain, and that chain is radically different from the old automotive one.

We’ve stopped talking about tier suppliers – now we talk about systems and data, battery cells and packs, fleet management, mobility operators and mobility aggregators. This is a new conversation, and there are opportunities to be found for investors across the theme.

Within each element, we also have a great deal of value being generated. We count 900+ companies and expect the value of the chain to approach 1bn US dollars by 2030[1]. This growth is being led by the US, Germany, and UK, increasingly joined by countries such as France, Israel, and China.

What’s driving the future mobility theme?

It starts with regulations (says Lukas). Country by country, air quality concerns and a growing focus on ‘green’, make it clear that EVs are inevitable. The UK has recently announced plans to ban new fossil fuel vehicles by the end of the decade.

Even more impactful than national efforts are city-level ones. Lots of city authorities are making decisions about which types of vehicle to allow in – and it’s not looking good for traditional cars. If you can’t drive an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle into the city, there’s no point in having one. A city mayor can have a huge influence on industrial policy.

There are other drivers, too. One is simply cost, and the movement towards the price parity of EVs versus traditional vehicles. This has been calculated at around US$100 per kWh – and depending on who you ask, this could be reached as soon as 2022-20252.

We already see price parity in the fleet market. In this area, when you factor in the total cost of ownership of a vehicle including the cost of driving into cities, doing maybe 50-150 miles per day, and whether you can charge cheaply at a depot, there are often even more incentives to buy electric.  

Across countries there are also different tax exemptions and subsidies – some of them even greater for company car schemes.

How did EVs perform in 2020?

EVs had a great 2020. Sales of hybrid and full electric cars in Europe made up over 20% of total car sales, up from 6% in 2018 to 22.4% in 2020. 

We asked our webcast audience to guess what percentage of new car sales in Europe in 2020 were electric (hybrid and full battery electric). Only 13% correctly said 20% or more. 


As we look ahead through 2021, we can use Q4 2020 results as a benchmark. In Q4, hybrid and full battery electric were over 30% of new vehicles sold across Europe[1]. In a market where we saw a dramatic decrease in the number of vehicles sold, we had a dramatic increase in the proportion of plug-in vehicle sales.

These numbers should explain the high valuations we’re seeing – and why there’s been such an upswing of interest in the area.


To watch Lukas’s full presentation, please follow this link to our replay. You will learn:

How to assess which new manufacturers have value and which don’t
Where legacy Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) like BMW fit in
The parts of the value chain most worth paying attention to


How to build indices that capture the future mobility theme

Neeraj Kumar

Once we understand more about the opportunity presented by the future mobility theme, the question is simple: how can we select companies to capture it?

MSCI uses a five-step strategy for turning an idea into an investible index. 

  1. Articulate the theme or objective of the theme

For the future mobility theme, as Lukas explained, it’s not just about batteries or EVs, but an entire new value chain which has emerged. We articulate very clearly the scope of exposures that we intend to capture through our index. This process sets the index objective.

  1. Expand that index objective and flesh out the sub-themes

We fill out the theme by unpacking it into smaller parts. For example, with future mobility, we include the sub-themes of batteries, smart mobility, the sharing economy, autonomous vehicles, and other related areas.

  1. Build a dictionary of words around each sub-theme

We take each smaller sub-theme, e.g. batteries, and build a dictionary of words around it using Natural Language Processing techniques. This will include product services and concepts related to batteries, expanding the sub-theme into a collection of relevant keywords.

This step is taken for each subtheme identified in step 2. By the end of step 3 we have a set of words, synonyms, and concepts, all related to the theme and the subthemes expressed in step 2. These first three steps we call ‘theme modelling’, and they come before any analysis of real companies.

These investment themes can be described as ‘emerging’ – they are advancing and changing at a rapid pace. That’s why we have industry experts within each theme to advise on updating this dictionary, to stay relevant to the index objective.

  1. Pick the parent universe and measure companies’ exposure to the theme

In step 4 we start to examine companies within our parent universe. For each company, we establish the link between their different economic activities and the objectives of the theme. This gives us a score showing the link between that activity and the theme, which we call the “relevance score”. Now, we can assign a score between 0 and 1 to each company for its exposure to the future mobility theme.

  1. Use the relevance score to build portfolios

Once we have scored every company in our parent universe for its exposure to the theme in question, we have the tools to select stocks and combine them in different ways, add in ESG considerations, all within a completely transparent and rules-based methodology.  


Source: MSCI. For illustrative purposes only. This is not a recommendation.


To watch Neeraj’s full presentation, please follow this link to our replay . You will learn:

How MSCI uses natural language processing and machine learning when building thematic indices
The rules governing stock selection, screening, and weighting in thematic indices


The view from Lyxor

Our world is changing. Technological breakthroughs, economic evolution and the climate emergency are reshaping reality for billions of people. Will your portfolio keep up?
Each of our Thematic ETFs combines human insight, natural language processing and data analysis techniques in a unique way to identify the companies that matter most, and ensure your portfolio stays one step ahead. As a pioneering ETF provider with a history of innovation, we’ve gone the extra mile to build some truly state-of-the art funds for a new state of mind.
We’re incredibly excited about this range and hope you can join us in preparing portfolios for change.

Target TER for these Thematic ETFs is 0.45% but has temporarily been decreased to 0.15% until September 2021.

*Source: Lyxor International Asset Management. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

1Neckermann Strategic Advisors, 2021

2Neckermann Strategic Advisors research; Deloitte, BNEF, McKinsey, UBS, Insideevs.com, thedriven.io

3EV sales figures from ACEA, Statista, EV-Volumes.com

Risk Warning

This document has been provided by Lyxor International Asset Management that is solely responsible for its content.

Fund Name Sub Fund Name Country of domicile
Lyxor Index Fund Lyxor MSCI Smart Cities ESG Filtered (DR) UCITS ETF - Acc Luxembourg
Lyxor Index Fund Lyxor MSCI Future Mobility ESG Filtered (DR) UCITS ETF - Acc Luxembourg
Lyxor Index Fund Lyxor MSCI Disruptive Technology ESG Filtered (DR) UCITS ETF - Ac Luxembourg
Lyxor Index Fund Lyxor MSCI Digital Economy ESG Filtered (DR) UCITS ETF - Acc Luxembourg
Lyxor Index Fund Lyxor MSCI Millennials ESG Filtered (DR) UCITS ETF - Acc Luxembourg

Past performance is no indication of current or future performance. The performance data do not take into account of the commissions and costs incurred on the issue and redemption of units.

The shares are not registered under the U.S Securities Act of 1933 and may not be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the United States (including its territories or possessions) or to or for the benefit of a U.S Person (being a “United State Person” within the meaning of Regulation S under the Securities Act of 1933 of the United States, as amended, and/or any person not included in the definition of “Non-United States Person” within the meaning of Section 4.7 (a) (1) (iv) of the rules of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.). No U.S federal or state securities commission has reviewed or approved this document and more generally any documents with respect to or in connection with the fund. Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offence.

Financial intermediaries (including particularly, representatives of private banks or independent asset managers, Intermediaries) are hereby reminded on the strict regulatory requirements applicable under the CISA to any distribution of foreign collective investment schemes in Switzerland. It is each Intermediary’s sole responsibility to ensure that (i) all these requirements are put in place prior to any Intermediary distributing any of the Funds presented in this document and (ii) that otherwise, it does not take any action that could constitute distribution of collective investment schemes in Switzerland as defined in article 3 CISA and related regulation.Any information in this document is given only as of the date of this document and is not updated as of any date thereafter. This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer, an invitation to make an offer, a solicitation or recommendation to invest in collective investment schemes.  This document is not a prospectus as per article 652a or 1156 of the Swiss Code of Obligations, a listing prospectus according to the listing rules of the SIX Swiss Exchange or any other trading venue as defined by the Swiss Financial Market Infrastructure Act of 19 June 2015 (as amended from time to time, FMIA), a simplified prospectus, a key investor information document or a prospectus as defined in the CISA.An investment in collective investment schemes involves significant risks that are described in each prospectus or offering memorandum. Each potential investor should read the entire prospectus or offering memorandum and should carefully consider the risk warnings and disclosures before making an investment decision. Any benchmarks/indices cited in this document are provided for information purposes only.

This document is not the result of a financial analysis and therefore is not subject to the “Directive on the Independence of Financial Research” of the Swiss Bankers Association. This document does not contain personalized recommendations or advice and is not intended to substitute any professional advice on investments in financial products.The Representative and the Paying Agent of the Fund(s) in Switzerland is Société Générale, Paris, Zurich Branch, Talacker 50, 8001 Zurich. The prospectus or offering memorandum, the key investor information documents, the management regulation, the articles of association and/or any other constitutional documents as well as the annual and semi-annual financial reports may be obtained free of charge from the Representative in Switzerland.

Research disclaimer

Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) or its employees may have or maintain business relationships with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that LIAM and its employees may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see appendix at the end of this report for the analyst(s) certification(s), important disclosures and disclaimers. Alternatively, visit our global research disclosure website www.lyxoretf.com/compliance.

Conflicts of interest

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to (i) ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees.