04 Jun 2020
04 Jun 2020
As part of our guest blog series on thematic investing, MSCI and Lukas Neckermann share their views on Future Mobility. Read on to find out how the future of passenger and freight transport is already transforming our daily lives.
It is easy to take getting from point A to point B for granted. Whether a destination is across town or further afield, transport is a key element of how society works. Transport represents a significant part of the economy as well — at around 13% of total outlays, transportation is second only to housing as the largest category of expenses in the average U.S. or European household.1 In addition, this is a sector that has already faced substantial disruption.
Vehicles have become more connected and more cars are now electric. Both these trends seem likely to deepen and broaden at least based on plans global carmakers have announced to invest over USD 300 billion in electric vehicle technology alone over the next five to 10 years.2Buses, cars, trains, scooters and aircraft have also become more automated. Moreover, a shift from ownership to “usership,” as part of a “shared economy,” means that the traditional business models across the transportation, travel and automotive sectors have become increasingly vulnerable. A widely quoted study from Berkeley’s Transportation Sustainability Research Center suggests that each car-sharing vehicle replaces nine to13 vehicles purchased.3
Today, many travelers are more likely to hail a ride with their smartphone than to get a rental car or taxi. According to the business travel expense management company, Certify, Uber is now the largest single recipient of travel expenses among U.S. business travelers, accounting for over 12% of travel expenses — three times more than any single restaurant, airline or retail outlet4 Particularly for residents in cities,the economics of directly owning a car seem to be changing, as alternatives such as ride-hailing and car-sharing services are becoming more transparent and available, and as low-emissions zones are introduced. A new ecosystem — broadly called “mobility,” i.e., mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) — has been emerging.
1Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.htm
2 Reuters, Jan. 10 2019 “VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars”: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-autoshow-detroitelectric-exclusive/exclusive-vw-china-spearhead-300-billion-globaldrive-to-electrify-cars-idUKKCN1P40GI
3“Impacts of car2go on Vehicle Ownership, Modal Shift, Vehicle Miles Traveled, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Analysis of Five North American Cities”: http://its.berkeley.edu/node/12871
MSCI would like to thank Lukas Neckermann, Managing Director of Neckermann Strategic Advisors, for useful discussions and insightful analysis of this megatrend which have greatly facilitated the preparation of this article.
Lukas Neckermann is the author of three books: “The Mobility Revolution” (2015), “Corporate Mobility Breakthrough 2020” (2017) and “Smart Cities, Smart Mobility: Transforming the Way We Live and Work” (2018).
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